The magazine “Gentside” is currently circulating an article with a video that announces the end of the world with dramatic music: the asteroid “Bennu” is supposed to collide with the Earth in 2135 and NASA can do nothing about it. Now what's up with that?
This article and especially the video are more likely to cause panic than to provide meaningful information. But first let's see what we're dealing with with Bennu.
“(101955) Bennu”
This name refers to a so-called “Near Earth Object” (“NEO”), which was discovered on September 11, 1999. The asteroid measures approx. 492 m in diameter and orbits the sun in 436 days in an orbit with an inclination (orbital inclination) of only approx. 6° compared to the ecliptic, i.e. an orbit similar to that of the Earth. Bennu makes a flyby of Earth every 6 years. Bennu belongs to the so-called Apollo type, which includes objects whose orbits cross that of the Earth, i.e. for which the possibility of an impact is fundamentally present or even possible.

A study by the astronomer and expert on impacts, i.e. impacts of celestial bodies, Andrea Milani Comparetti, shows that in 2135 Bennu will fly past at a distance less than the Earth-Moon distance. Its orbit could be diverted by the Earth in such a way that it could possibly collide in another decade to a century.
Now you can read in many places that the collision will take place in the year 2135. First of all, this is fundamentally wrong and is based on a single error that has been copied many times. Because the study says:
“Bennu makes a very close approach to the Earth on September 25th, 2135, and we modify Bennu's ephemeris in our dynamics model slightly such that it instead hits the center of the Earth on that date”
So you changed Bennu's path in the computer as if he were actually going to hit the track in 2135, and then you looked at what you had to do to prevent that from happening. However, a press release from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory once stated the incorrect variant of a “certain impact,” and all the rest of the media copied it bluntly. If you had just looked briefly, the error would have been noticed quickly.
So whatever happens or doesn't happen, none of us will live to see it. And it is not yet clear whether it will happen at all.
Can't anyone do anything? Why isn't anyone doing anything?
Of course we can do something, and we have been doing that for around 20 years: We are observing the asteroid. When an asteroid is discovered, initially little can be said about its trajectory. After a few days it will become more precise because we know more about the railway. And after weeks, months, years, it becomes more and more precise, the more data we have about the orbit and the better we know the asteroid. We can now predict the trajectory quite accurately to a certain extent.
However, only to a certain extent, because we don't yet know a few unknowns in the equation: For example, the nature of the asteroid. This depends on how it will react to possible countermeasures from Earth and, above all, how strong the so-called Jarkowski effect is. This effect describes how much an asteroid is deflected from its orbit by solar radiation. In order to say this, you have to know exactly what material the asteroid is made of. So you would basically have to fly there and take a look. And that's exactly what we do:
We're flying there!
(Origins Spectral Interpretation Resource Identification Security - Regolith Explorer) mission was launched in 2016 and will arrive near the asteroid on December 3, 2018 and slowly approach it. After it enters a 5 km high orbit, it will examine Bennu closely with various cameras and measuring devices. During the observation phase, which lasts around 500 days, the orbit of the probe will be lowered little by little in order to finally take a small sample of Bennu's surface material using the specially developed TAGSAM (Touch-And-Go Sample Acquisition Mechanism) . This will then be stored in a specially designed container on board the probe before OSIRIS-REx makes its way back to Earth. The container will then be released there and will land back with us in 2023. We will then have something to do with examining the samples for the next few decades.
And in addition to general, exciting insights into the formation of the solar system, we will also learn more about Bennu and be able to say more about its future orbit. Because Bennu is a unique opportunity to look into the past. Here is an interesting video about it.
(Video is in English, but you can set German in the options for automatically translated subtitles on YouTube, the translation is even usable.)
And if he really hits us?
Of course this possibility exists, but we shouldn't panic now. Generally speaking, around 2 to 3 tons of rock from space lands on Earth every day. Most chunks are perhaps a few millimeters in size, sometimes perhaps a hazelnut or walnut. Larger objects are rarer, you may still remember the Chelyabinsk meteor that burned up over the city on February 15, 2013, causing local property and personal damage, but no serious or catastrophic damage.
We know most of the near-Earth objects that could be dangerous to us, but of course there are also objects that we don't yet have on our radar. Or just some where we can't say exactly yet, like Bennu.
If it turned out that we were really going to be hit, then of course we should do something about it. And there are currently various theories and approaches as to what can be done. You could fly a heavy probe very close to the asteroid and use gravity to move the asteroid slightly off course. Depending on where in your orbit you do it, that could be enough. Or you “assemble” a kind of engine that you then ignite. Or you can shoot explosives at him to distract him. So there are a whole range of ideas. Although these have not yet been tested (how can they be?), there are increasing efforts to draw up concrete plans.
If I had a HAMMER...
A concept that is currently well advanced on the drawing boards is the so-called “Hypervelocity Asteroid Mitigation Mission for Emergency Response vehicle”, or HAMMER for short. This is a 9 meter long and 8.8 t heavy unmanned missile that will either be fired directly at the asteroid or detonated nearby. Although HAMMER is probably not powerful enough for Bennu, the concept is promising, although objects the size of Bennu would probably need to use nuclear warheads.
We'll know more in time. By the way, there was already an asteroid that was briefly suspected of being dangerous to us: Apophis. It was also announced in sensational headlines as the bringer of the end of the world - but after just a few days of observation we knew that it would not affect us .
And the headlines in the media?
Quite simply: These lurid headlines, the articles with half-knowledge and misinterpreted facts or simply omitted facts, and especially a video like this, which stirs up fears with dramatic music, all these publications, THEY HELP NO ONE!
They only stir up panic and give a completely wrong picture of science, of asteroids, of space travel - of everything, actually.
an article about this scare tactics in his “Bad Headlines” section (which, by the way, already made the rounds in March 2018 and is now probably just being rehashed).
And by the way: NASA is repeatedly cited as judging, explaining, claiming or something else. NASA is not the last word! Astronomers around the world work together to observe asteroids, and even amateur astronomers sometimes provide data from orbital observations. And there are universities, individual scientists, other space companies and dozens of other institutions that have at least as well-founded expertise as the institutions and departments of NASA.
Bennu is a unique opportunity to learn more about our solar system and better understand asteroids. Asteroid impacts happen, there's no other way. And at some point, purely statistically speaking, we will have another impact. But we are currently researching how this can be prevented. And just the technology with which we want to take a sample and bring it back to Earth is super exciting.
And even some numbers are misinterpreted in all the articles: It is written everywhere that there is a probability of 1:2700 that Bennu will hit. However, this is a cumulative probability, i.e. the probability of all flybys taken together. The single flyby in question, which is interesting after the “close” flyby of 2135, and of which it is written that Bennu will “certainly” hit there, the probability there is something like 1:24,000. Driving is probably more dangerous...
And the “apocalyptic” effects of a possible impact are also exaggerated. Florian Freistetter writes:
By the way: There would be no question of an “apocalypse” even if there was a real hit. A major natural disaster, certainly – but a 500 meter asteroid is too small to have a global impact. So it wouldn't be an event that can be compared to, for example, the extinction of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago (at that time the asteroid was 10 kilometers wide!).
So it would be much better if we read more articles like this one: Asteroid “Bennu” – probe “OSIRIS-REx” photographs its target for the first time . Written calmly, understandably, informative, technically correct and with linked sources. It should be so.
But spreading panic with doomsday scenarios is more lucrative in terms of clicks. Unfortunately. And does science a disservice.
Until we hear more from OSIRIS-REx soon, at the beginning of December, here is a picture of the Earth with the moon that the probe recently sent:

That's also exciting - when will we see our home planet like this?
Author: Rüdiger, mimikama.org
Sources and links:
- https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/12357
- https://www.asteroidmission.org
- https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/OSIRIS-REx
- https://arxiv.org/abs/0901.3631
- https://www.nasa.gov/osiris-rex
- https://www.heise.de/newsticker/melde/Asteroid-Bennu-Sonde-Osiris-Rex-fotografiert-erstmals-ihr-ziel-4145800.html
- http://scienceblogs.de/astrodicticum-simplex/2016/09/05/9-september-2016-osiris-rex-startet-zum-asteroiden-bennu/
- http://scienceblogs.de/astrodicticum-simplex/2018/03/20/riesiger-asteroid-rast-auf-erde-zu-nasa-plant-wehrrakete-besser-schlagzeilen-funktion-20/
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