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Misleading graphic suggests a decline in climate-related deaths – a detailed analysis

Some graphics by statistician Björn Lomborg are widely used in climate change “skeptical” circles. But what do they say?

Author: Mimikama

The claim

The well-known statistician Lomborg claims in a graphic he distributed that there has been a 99% decline in climate-related deaths since the 1920s.

Our conclusion

The starting point was chosen at the highest point, 20 years before that are missing.

  • Non-climatic factors such as wars and political decisions have caused or increased crop failures and prevented interventions. In Lomborg's explanation, the death toll is attributed solely to climatic factors
  • Extreme individual events are distorted by the representation of average values
  • The data is incomplete and does not comprehensively take heat waves into account. Heat deaths are already increasing.
  • Climate catastrophes will continue to increase this century.

The graphic in question has already been discussed Mimikama fact check “A misleading graphic trivializes deaths caused by climate change ” and clearly shows why Lomborg is known for cherry-picking. In an extensive analysis, the fact checker “The Disproof ” took a closer look at the individual events that led to extremely high death rates between 1900 and 1959.

Spoiler: Climate or storm disasters were never the sole factors; wars and political decisions were always significantly involved.

As the lead, we see and hear Lomborg himself claim: “We are seeing a 99% decline in climate-related deaths.”

If you are not convinced by Lomborg's explanation of statistical tricks in the old fact check, you might want to think about the effects of the following circumstances on the numbers - but first a quick look back (in detail here ):

The statistical trick

Distributing extremely high numbers of individual events over a ten-year average creates the impression of a consistent progression and conceals the extent of individual events.

To make the decline in deaths seem even more impressive, Lomborg shortened his original 2015 graph to include the first 20 years after 1900 for the new edition now circulating.

MIMIKAMA

Cherry-picking and ignoring changing conditions

The technical possibilities for predicting and responding to severe weather and natural disasters have changed significantly since 1900. One should not confuse causes and prevention. Which brings us slowly closer to the point that reinforces the old fact check with an important argument.

Data base with gaps – not all climatic factors taken into account

EM-DAT data set on which the graphic is based, many climate-related deaths, particularly those caused by extreme temperatures, are not taken into account at all due to EM-DAT's specific criteria. The Tagesschau quoted Felix Creutzig from the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change: “Many heat waves are not taken into account, but their mortality is demonstrably very high.” Unlike, for example, a flood disaster, people die “more gradually over several days” in hot weather. And many of them would therefore not end up in the database at all.

A study published in Nature suggests that around 37% of heat deaths can be directly attributed to man-made climate change.

Major influence of non-climatic factors on the data set before 1960

And now for the crucial upgrade to the fact check and a question that every skeptical person should ask themselves when interpreting statistics: Are there factors that are not immediately recognizable in the statistics but have an influence on the numbers? The research comes to the conclusion: Yes, such factors play a role and it is big.

The linked video takes a detailed look at it. The countries China, India and Bangladesh play a central role. Information is presented in the form of screenshots in the photo gallery for the article. Here is a list of the years with extreme death rates, naming the climatic or weather-related problem and the factors at a glance:

  • 1900 Drought (India) - mainly due to the policies of the British Empire at the time and the lack of help from Great Britain.
  • 1920 and 1921 Drought (China) – Crop failures occurred immediately after the Zhili-Anhui War.
  • Drought of 1928 (China) – more political than natural, including the increase in opium production and ongoing wars that limited food supplies
  • Floods of 1931 (China) – this was during the Chinese Civil War. Most deaths were due to disease and lack of food after the flood. Japan's invasion of Manchuria just months after the flood made matters worse.
  • Floods 1938/39 (China) – The flood was caused by the destruction of dikes by Nationalist Chinese forces to stop the advance of Japanese troops.
  • Drought 1942 and 1943 (India/Bangladesh) – War-related redistribution of food supplies caused most deaths
  • The 1959 (China) floods – the famine was largely due to the failures of the “Great Leap Forward” policy at the time.

The take-home message

MIMIKAMA

Not all deaths in this graphic are due to natural disasters alone. Various political and military situations have increased the impact of natural disasters. Attribution of the high number of deaths in individual years before 1960 to climatic causes is completely untenable when viewed from a differentiated perspective.

Meanwhile, climate-related deaths are increasing again, as shown by the Nature study linked above. Compared to the listed historical events from China, India and Bangladesh, these are of course peanuts - but you shouldn't ignore the background.

Sources:

Academia , Natural Disasters , Harvard T. H. Chan , National Centers for Environmental Information

Author: Michael Kipp


This might also be of interest:
Fact check: While rummaging around for photos, we discovered that there were warm summers even before 1995...
The impressive photo of the storm in Mallorca: What's really behind it?
The mystery of “It could be”: When the Internet becomes the jury

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Notes:

1) This content reflects the current state of affairs at the time of publication
.
The reproduction of individual images, screenshots, embeds or video sequences serves to discuss the topic. 2) Individual articles (not fact checks) were created using machine help and
were carefully checked by the Mimikama editorial team before publication. ( Reason )


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