With new reports about the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 every day, there is also increasing uncertainty about what is best to do.

Each individual now has many questions: How many infections with the new coronavirus will I have? What will happen then? When will it happen? What can be done in general and in particular?

Previously, SARS-CoV-2 was only described as an epidemic in individual countries, but now as a pandemic, i.e. countries and continents. Nevertheless, panic is the worst advisor, but prudent and, above all, quick action from politicians and from each individual is required in order to contain the spread as effectively as possible.

The dissemination

While the new coronavirus is still spreading slowly in some countries, some countries have already exceeded the limit of exponential spread: They have reached a point where, statistically speaking, infections are doubling every day:

Infection rate between March 5th and 6th, source: medium.com
Infection rate between March 5th and 6th, source: medium.com

If the trend continues, it is expected that in a few days France will have the most infected people, followed by the USA, Sweden, Belgium and Germany.

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Keep the curve flat!

We looked and still look with horror at China and now also in Italy, where entire cities have been quarantined.
China is far away, so some people may not be interested in that, but Italy? If you look at the statistics above, things still look comparatively good. So is Italy reacting too panicked?

No ! On the contrary, Italy is doing it exactly right, they are learning from past and present situations, because the motto is: “ Flatten the curve .

This table shows the coronavirus cases in individual regions of China (except Hubei), compared to South Korea, Italy and Iran:

Coronavirus cases through March 4, source: medium.com
Coronavirus cases through March 4, source: medium.com

Each of the regions in China had a tendency to experience exponential growth in cases, but the drastic measures taken at the end of January have kept the curve flat until now!

In South Korea, Italy and Iran, countries that had the same exponential growth compared to the Hubei region, cases have now skyrocketed even though they had a month to act. This is also why Italy reacted late, but correctly!

You learn from experience

What may surprise some: In the countries close to China, such as Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand, the growth curves are also rather weak; At the time the graphs were created, there were fewer than 50 cases in Taiwan.

But there is a simple reason for this: these countries have experience!
All those countries were affected by the SARS outbreak in 2003 and learned from it. They know how viral and deadly an unknown virus can be, and they already behave very cleanly in everyday life: sick people always wear protective masks to protect other people from droplet infections, surfaces are kept extremely clean, and in Singapore you can even be arrested for smoking Public or throwing trash will end up in jail.

Reduce the mortality rate

A large number of statistics from all affected countries currently lead to two conclusions that governments should take to heart:

  • In countries that are prepared and/or take drastic measures, the mortality rate is 0.5 – 0.9 percent.
  • In countries that are “overwhelmed,” the mortality rate is 3-5 percent.

If countries early , the mortality rate can be reduced by a factor of 10, as can the infection rate, which further flattens the curve.

Quick decisions are required

Taiwan is almost a model state when it comes to measures against COVID-19 diseases, as data analysis shows . The country is just 130 kilometers off the coast of China and was expected to have the second highest infection rate after China due to the large number of flights there.

Instead, Taiwan is now bringing up the rear, precisely because they learned from 2003 and SARS, because they used airport controls very early on and actively looked for potentially sick people and quarantined them.

In such situations, governments must make difficult decisions, even under uncertainty and time pressure, and these decisions must also be culturally appropriate and sensitive to the population; a real balancing act!

You can't eliminate it, you can move it!

At this point, it is no longer possible to eliminate the coronavirus in the near future.
But what is now possible: postpone! If we can reduce infections as much as possible through sometimes drastic measures, i.e. keep the infection curve flat, we will eventually reach a point in time when a vaccine is available and the risk of infection can be almost eliminated.

We can hardly prevent infections now. But we can push them back as best we can.

Social distancing and cleanliness

This doesn't mean that you should completely isolate yourself, because fortunately there is a great invention that allows you to still have contact with other people, family and friends: the Internet!

Larger gatherings of people such as concerts and other events should be avoided. The less direct contact, the lower the risk of becoming infected.

But sometimes you just have to go out, most often to go shopping. And then there is a shopping cart that someone infected may have previously had. What now?

No false shame! Depending on the surface, coronaviruses can survive for hours or days. So keep the cleaning wipes ready often and don't touch your face until you can wash your hands thoroughly at home. “Excessive” cleanliness must now become normal in public!

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Conclusion

Governments and organizers now have to make uncomfortable decisions, which ultimately save lives:
empty football stadiums, canceled events, closed clubs, discos, pubs, schools, universities, theaters and museums.

This will be painful for many people, of course also for many organizers who will lose income, but only through such drastic measures will there be a chance of containing the new coronavirus until a vaccination has been developed.

Let's learn from the past. Let's learn from the countries that have already had such crises. Then at some point SARS-CoV-2 will only be a dim memory.

More graphs, statistics and background information on medium.com


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Notes:
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