Battered by more than two years of pandemic, we are all facing a rate of inflation that we have never experienced in our lifetime. The prices for gas and electricity are currently skyrocketing and have many consequences. We do not have a break between these crisis phases. Because the crises are not a football season in which people have time between match days to recover and prepare for the next game.

No, what we are experiencing right now is real life and the crises that have arisen and continue to develop are basically a foreseeable process that no one has wanted to admit until now. For your own convenience, for fear of consequences, for fear of losses? I don't know it.

INFO!
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Exploitation of resources, inconsideration towards fellow human beings and the environment, greed for power and money, all things that led to the problems we are facing today. As already mentioned, everything is predictable! And accordingly also coherent . I therefore believe that we are only at the beginning of a development that we cannot control, but that we must adapt in many areas in order to keep it as mild as possible.

Pay attention to the vulnerability indicator in crises!

Unfortunately, protective measures are often only developed when damage has occurred. And then often only when a certain circle of power is affected. “Powerless” areas of society are often ignored, even though they represent a good indicator of vulnerability.

This is also the case in our crises. Establishing braking effects and their measures once certain circles of power are affected is simply too late. The thought “as long as I’m doing well” while others are falling over themselves economically will ultimately lead to collapse. Because if you still feel safe now, be warned: the price increases in the coming autumn and winter can be in the four-digit range per household. At least that is what Economics Minister Habeck has now announced . According to him, this price increase can be a complete monthly income for a family. In my opinion, Habeck has a problem with knowing real income, because it is probably about two months' salary.

We're talking about pure increase! With the same product! If we only think about our gas or electricity bills at this moment, we are simply thinking far too briefly. Because our entire industrial and economic system is affected by affordable energy. In the end, not only will everything become more expensive, but jobs will also disappear due to austerity measures, bankruptcies or a lack of availability! Impoverishment is imminent. An impoverishment that the vulnerability indicator already described is already showing us today.

Bad! Basically, I'm less afraid that there will be an energy shortage in winter and I won't be able to heat anymore than I am that there will be gas and electricity, but I can no longer afford both. And not just me, but also my family, my benefit recipient (aka “employer”), basically our entire society.

Impending impoverishment creates fear!

I was recently accused of “doom and gloom” because I believe the upcoming crisis could spark social unrest. In my opinion, this is not a pessimism, but a warning arising from the analysis.

Because apart from the economic problems that we will face, I also see political and social problems coming our way. To summarize my analysis, I would like to preface my analysis with the apt statement by science author Florian Aigner:

Extremely dangerous situation: If the population deep into the middle class is threatened with impoverishment due to high energy prices and freezes in winter, then authoritarian right-wing extremists will promise a simple solution. Afterwards we still impoverish and freeze, but under fascism.

Florian Aigner on Twitter

The essential point at this point is: If energy prices drive (and will bring) the previously stable sections of the population into existential fears, this will become fodder for extremists and populists of all kinds! Based on my observations over the last few years, I am convinced that our society cannot withstand the constant fire and constant fears of various crises. Corona was just a stress test! With disappointing results.

Our democracy will be at great risk if extremists and populists take over the energy and economic crisis and offer supposedly simple solutions to complex problems. This would once again create dangerous docking points to the middle of society, which sees itself under great threat from exploding prices.

Existing fears are integrated into the political battle plan. However, in the end, the simple slogans of extremists do not bring any solutions; they only serve to strengthen their own position and get people on their side.

This isn't new, I didn't invent it either. And this is how societies can collapse! After many years of previous analysis, I have explained in my book “ Attack on Democracy ” how the form of communication and manipulation works in crises (especially on social media).

The conclusion of this analysis is that crises are always a catalyst for existing social problems, which, depending on the points of connection to the middle of a society, give extremists an advantage. And this is where the solutions must come into play.

Identify crisis problems, warn them, develop and implement solutions!

And these solutions are unfortunately complex; symbolic politics consisting of any “one-off vouchers” for energy or quick-fix subsidies in those economic circles that are booming anyway are not enough. Unfortunately, tangible measures are needed that we and many sectors of the economy and industry will not like because they are not (willing to? / unable to?) dynamic.

At the same time, we must not forget that the temptingly sweet candies of the extremists and populists may sparkle pleasantly and simply, but in the end they have a corrosive, even destructive effect. “Easy” is not. The measures that we personally like the least will be the most efficient. Even though these may not always be perfect, they are still better than any kind of lethargy or business as usual.

Anyone who has resisted wind turbines in their own town in the past is now faced with the fact that electricity is becoming scarce. Anyone who has consciously decided to work in the city and at the same time build a house cheaply in the country will now have to struggle with expensive commutes and a lack of public transport infrastructure.

And in my opinion this will become even more intense in the future! It's not like I've thrown in the towel yet. On the contrary, I am one of those who develop solutions (sometimes more or sometimes less close to the control centers). The bad thing is that we already know many solutions, but do not want to accept them for reasons such as convenience, fear, loss of prosperity or simply maintaining a supposed status quo. Efficient solutions to ward off various crisis effects are thwarted with pseudo-arguments that simultaneously camouflage self-mendacity and seemingly legitimize the continued existence of one's own behavior.

Why should I start taking uncomfortable measures when my neighbor continues to have a good time? This way of thinking can be found at both the micro level and the macro level. And it reflects one of the human problems, namely the fear of change. Our problem, however, is that the change also takes place without us, only then we no longer fit into this world. If in doubt, this should be understood physically if climate change cannot be mitigated.

All of them are good on their own, but we need more!

At this point I don't want to discuss or reiterate any individual solution ideas. We are in this boat globally. We are all currently in a global mix of pandemic, economic problems, climate change and energy crisis.

It is certainly good and right for us as private individuals to reflect and adapt ourselves and our behavior. But that's just part of the whole. I see politics and business as having a duty here.

Politics because its damn job is to serve people (not themselves!) and avert danger. But this also includes unpleasant things, which in the end ensure our continued existence as a society within a functioning democracy. Cooperation across divides is just as important as honest and informative communication. Vanity and cronyism are not appropriate.

But industry and business must also be clear that they have a social responsibility. What's the point of outsized profits if there is no longer any purchasing power for products in the end? It's nice if, for example, an Amazon (one of the crisis winners) made around $470 billion in sales in 2021, but in 2023 I have to think about canceling Amazon Video due to the threat of impoverishment because it's dispensable and there's generally nothing online to buy more because I can only afford used products.

Crises: We will have massive problems! If we don't already have them.

I therefore hope and wish that these crises do not bring us to the brink of a social catastrophe. Or even beyond that. But unfortunately I also know that we only have to counteract this with large-scale efforts, both small and large. And we mustn't get involved in manipulative promises, because it won't be easy!

It is therefore time to adapt to this. The future will be different.

This might also be of interest : The PLURV tactics: Distort, destabilize, irritate! These tactics will get you manipulated on social media. Continue reading …


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