The weather on Dormouse Day may last another seven weeks ” – just one of many common farm rules.
And on June 27th it's that time again: today's weather will decide what it looks like in the next few weeks. Is it raining where you are? Bad luck, you can put your bathing suits away again! Is the sun shining where you are? Well, get out then, but pronto! No, forget that very quickly, because this pawn rule is nonsense.

“But what if everyone says it?”

In a non-representative vote, the Hessenschau to know how much the dormouse farmer rule is still believed. The result:

The Hessenschau survey on the dormouse farmer rule
The Hessenschau survey on the dormouse farmer's rule, source: Hessenschau

32.7 percent believe in the rule, 47.2 percent think it is at least possible, only 20.1 percent think the farmers' rule is nonsense. So an overwhelming 79.9 percent tend to believe the farmer's rule or at least consider it to be somewhat true.

What the majority thinks will be true? Not really!

One day alone can't predict the weather... but several days can!

Weather is a capricious diva, especially if you only look at a single day: Although there are climatic trends, for example that in our region it is warm in summer and cold in winter, that never says anything about individual days, because of course It also rains in the summer and there are also relatively warm days in the winter.

But it becomes a little more precise if we don't look at a single day, June 27th, but at several days, namely the entire period from the end of June to the first week of July, because statistically speaking you can actually use it to predict the weather relatively well see in the coming weeks.

Why is that?

In the upper layer of the atmosphere there is a band of strong wind, the so-called jet stream arises at the border between cold and warm air masses or high and low pressure areas Around the end of June/beginning of July, the jet stream stabilizes and basically stays in its position for several weeks.

If the jet stream runs further south in our region during this time, we will have a low pressure area above us: more days with rainy weather are forecast. Conversely, if the jet stream runs more northerly at that point, we can look forward to a persistent high pressure area and therefore more sunshine.

However, this does not apply to all of Germany, because the further north, the more unstable. In the north, the “jet stream rule” only applies to 55 percent, in the middle of Germany to 60 to 70 percent, and in the south even up to 80 percent.

Rebekka Krampitz from “ Kachelmann Wetterkanal ” explains this very nicely and concisely in a video:

Bonus: What does day have to do with the dormice?

Nothing. Apart from the fact that Dormouse Day used to be on July 7th or 8th, but moved to June 27th after the introduction of the Gregorian calendar in 1582, the cute animal has nothing in common with it, the name is based on a Christian legend.

According to this, seven Christian brothers are said to have been walled up in a cave near Ephesus because of their faith. They then slept there for a full 195 years until they were discovered and awakened on July 7th or 8th (now June 27th) in the year 446. That's why they were considered the patron saints against insomnia until the 18th century.

Summary

The dormouse day alone does not determine what the weather will be like in the next few weeks, but the period at the end of June/beginning of July does, as the jet stream stabilizes during this period and determines the weather in Europe.

But don't rely on it too much, because as already said: the weather is a moody diva. In any case, it's supposedly only good weather if you've finished your plate the day before... but that's another story.

H. Osadnik/ Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported
Sources: Kachelmann Wetterkanal , NDR , BR

Also interesting:

What is actually the difference between climate and weather?


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