Extreme weather results in regional shifts, as a result of which extreme weather events occur in areas where they have not previously occurred. Likewise, within regions - such as Germany - there is an increase in extreme weather events such as heat waves and a decrease in other extreme weather events such as severe frosts.
Last decade already 2 degrees Celsius warmer
In Germany, the average temperature has increased significantly since systematic, nationwide weather recordings began in 1881. According to evaluations by the German Weather Service, the temperature in Germany has since risen by 1.6 degrees Celsius (linear trend of the area average). The temperatures in Germany have risen significantly more than the global average.

Unprecedented accumulation of record warm years
Nine of the ten warmest years since 1881 have occurred since 2000 (see HERE ). Such an extraordinary accumulation of record years of temperature can only be explained by man-made global warming. Random fluctuations or natural influences, such as volcanoes or fluctuations in solar radiation, do not explain the global temperature increase.

Significant increase in heat events
The number of hot days (daily maximum air temperature of at least 30 degrees Celsius), averaged across the whole of Germany, has tripled since the 1950s from around three days per year to the current average of nine days per year. There has been a massive increase in heat waves in many regions since the 1990s.

Heavy rainfall – hardly any changes, a lot of research still needed
There are major differences in the distribution and frequency of heavy rainfall events. The connection between climate change and heavy precipitation is complex and the subject of intensive research. In the area average for Germany, the number of days with precipitation ≥ 20 mm changed only insignificantly in the period 1951-2021.
There is some evidence of an increase in the intensity of so-called convective events as the temperature increases. However, there is still a need for research here.

For some regions, area-wide radar data indicate an increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events, but due to the high variability from year to year and the short time series, no conclusions can be drawn about an increase in extreme events in connection with climate change. The slight increase observed could also be due to short and medium-term fluctuations.
Extreme weather like the 2021 flood disaster is therefore not a clear sign of climate change.
Summer 2022 will once again be exceptionally warm and dry
After the “millennium summer” of 2003, Germany and Central Europe experienced a series of very dry and warm summers in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2022. Both the frequency and the intensity of these very dry and warm summer months can only be explained by man-made climate change.

Longer dry periods
The higher temperatures in the summer months combined with decreasing rainfall mean that the plants start evaporating earlier and are also able to evaporate more. The overall consequence of this is that the soil dries out more quickly in spring and more severely in summer.
In addition to bottlenecks in the drinking water supply, this can also increasingly lead to problems in agriculture. Particularly for summer crops with a later growing season in the year, such as corn, potatoes and sugar beets, more thought needs to be given to irrigation. Increasing water supply bottlenecks are unavoidable unless appropriate countermeasures are taken.


The year 2022 shows that the record year 2018 was not so unique after all and the pressure to take preventative measures will increase. This is not just a problem for agriculture and forestry, but for society as a whole.

The risk of forest fires is increasing
The trend towards warmer summers with longer dry periods remains, increasing the risk of forest fires. In addition, the risk of forest fires is exacerbated by the fact that the trees, which have already been weakened by drought damage, form more litter on the forest floor, which can dry out more easily due to the thinner crowns and can therefore catch fire.

Four of the last five years have experienced increased wildfire risk, as the figure above shows.
High damage caused by thunderstorms and lightning strikes
Extreme weather is not cheap: Insurer evaluations show that thunderstorms and lightning cause a lot of material damage in Germany.

However, the time series of the data are still too short to derive reliable statements about climate-related trends. There is no clear trend in the number of lightning strikes in the data from the past 15 years; the last few years actually showed fewer lightning strikes in comparison.
Wind and storm: Hardly any changes
Although storms always come to the fore and are worthy of headlines, these extreme weather events don't really increase. On the contrary, various data sources indicate a slight decline in average wind speeds for Germany and the North Sea over the past few decades.

A Europe-wide analysis of wind measurements also shows weaker wind conditions for the greater area around Germany during the last two decades compared to the two decades before the year 2000. Evaluations of the wind speed at the height of 100 m, which is relevant for wind energy, based on reanalyses also show this a decline over the last decades.
Tornadoes – Strong increase in numbers, but more likely due to more observation
The number of tornadoes increased sharply, which can be largely explained by the increase and current spread of mobile devices with photo and video functions and thus the decrease in the number of unreported cases.
The number of observed and verified tornadoes in Germany between 1986 and 1995 averaged nine per year and rose to an average of around 56 tornado observations per year between 2001 and 2010. There are 42 tornado observations per year from 2012 to 2021.

The risk of higher storm surges is increasing
Rising sea levels are also a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. In addition to the global melting of glaciers and ice sheets, the cause is the thermal expansion of the warming seas and oceans.
Over the observation period from 1843 to 2019, both the high tide (high tide) and the low tide (low tide) increased on an annual average in Cuxhaven. Due to the increasing tide, the tidal range increased by around 15 cm in 177 years. Over the period since 1993 for which satellite altimetry data are available, these data show an acceleration in global marine game growth.

Conclusion
In summary, it can be said that extreme weather has increased in Germany. Some points are still unclear and cannot be seen as signs of climate change at this point (such as precipitation and wind), but other extreme weather such as intense heat and drought as well as storm surges send a clear signal.

And if something doesn't change quickly in the next few years, extreme weather will definitely continue to increase.
Source and article image:
German Weather Service / Extreme Weather Congress (2022): What we know about extreme weather in Germany in 2022. Offenbach am Main, Germany ( PDF )
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