Extreme weather results in regional shifts, as a result of which extreme weather events occur in areas where they have not previously occurred. Likewise, within regions - such as Germany - there is an increase in extreme weather events such as heat waves and a decrease in other extreme weather events such as severe frosts.

Last decade already 2 degrees Celsius warmer

In Germany, the average temperature has increased significantly since systematic, nationwide weather recordings began in 1881. According to evaluations by the German Weather Service, the temperature in Germany has since risen by 1.6 degrees Celsius (linear trend of the area average). The temperatures in Germany have risen significantly more than the global average.

The decade 2012-2021 is almost two degrees warmer than the reference period 1881-1910
The decade 2012-2021 is almost two degrees warmer than the reference period 1881-1910 / Source: DWD

Unprecedented accumulation of record warm years

Nine of the ten warmest years since 1881 have occurred since 2000 (see HERE ). Such an extraordinary accumulation of record years of temperature can only be explained by man-made global warming. Random fluctuations or natural influences, such as volcanoes or fluctuations in solar radiation, do not explain the global temperature increase.

Unprecedented accumulation of record heat years over the last decade
Unprecedented accumulation of record heat years over the last decade, source: DWD

Significant increase in heat events

The number of hot days (daily maximum air temperature of at least 30 degrees Celsius), averaged across the whole of Germany, has tripled since the 1950s from around three days per year to the current average of nine days per year. There has been a massive increase in heat waves in many regions since the 1990s.

Development of hot days in Germany with daily highs ≥ 30 °C
Development of hot days in Germany with daily highs ≥ 30 °C Source: DWD

Heavy rainfall – hardly any changes, a lot of research still needed

There are major differences in the distribution and frequency of heavy rainfall events. The connection between climate change and heavy precipitation is complex and the subject of intensive research. In the area average for Germany, the number of days with precipitation ≥ 20 mm changed only insignificantly in the period 1951-2021.

There is some evidence of an increase in the intensity of so-called convective events as the temperature increases. However, there is still a need for research here.

Development of the number of days with precipitation of at least 20 l/sqm in the area average of Germany from 1951 to 2021
Development of the number of days with precipitation of at least 20 l/sqm in the area average of Germany from 1951 to 2021, source: DWD

For some regions, area-wide radar data indicate an increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events, but due to the high variability from year to year and the short time series, no conclusions can be drawn about an increase in extreme events in connection with climate change. The slight increase observed could also be due to short and medium-term fluctuations.

Extreme weather like the 2021 flood disaster is therefore not a clear sign of climate change.

Summer 2022 will once again be exceptionally warm and dry

After the “millennium summer” of 2003, Germany and Central Europe experienced a series of very dry and warm summers in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2022. Both the frequency and the intensity of these very dry and warm summer months can only be explained by man-made climate change.

Thermopluviogram of the temperature and precipitation deviation of the area averages for Germany for the months April to August from the long-term averages 1961-1990
Thermopluviogram of the temperature and precipitation deviation of the area averages for Germany for the months April to August from the long-term averages 1961-1990

Longer dry periods

The higher temperatures in the summer months combined with decreasing rainfall mean that the plants start evaporating earlier and are also able to evaporate more. The overall consequence of this is that the soil dries out more quickly in spring and more severely in summer.

In addition to bottlenecks in the drinking water supply, this can also increasingly lead to problems in agriculture. Particularly for summer crops with a later growing season in the year, such as corn, potatoes and sugar beets, more thought needs to be given to irrigation. Increasing water supply bottlenecks are unavoidable unless appropriate countermeasures are taken.

Deviation of mean soil moisture under grass in Germany during spring (March to May) compared to the reference period 1991 - 2020
Deviation of the mean soil moisture under grass in Germany during spring (March to May) compared to the reference period 1991 - 2020
Deviation of the mean soil moisture under grass in Germany during the summer months of June to August compared to the reference period 1991 - 2020
Deviation of the mean soil moisture under grass in Germany during the summer months of June to August compared to the reference period 1991 - 2020

The year 2022 shows that the record year 2018 was not so unique after all and the pressure to take preventative measures will increase. This is not just a problem for agriculture and forestry, but for society as a whole.

Maps of the mean soil moisture under grass at a soil depth of 0-60 cm in the summer months for the years 1991-2022, in percent usable field capacity (nFK)
Maps of the mean soil moisture under grass at a soil depth of 0-60 cm in the summer months for the years 1991-2022, in percent usable field capacity (nFK). Source: DWD

The risk of forest fires is increasing

The trend towards warmer summers with longer dry periods remains, increasing the risk of forest fires. In addition, the risk of forest fires is exacerbated by the fact that the trees, which have already been weakened by drought damage, form more litter on the forest floor, which can dry out more easily due to the thinner crowns and can therefore catch fire.

Number of days with forest fire danger index WBI ≥ 4 from March 1st for the years 2018 to 2022 as well as the long-term averages 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 for Germany
Number of days with forest fire danger index WBI ≥ 4 from March 1st for the years 2018 to 2022 as well as the long-term averages 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 for Germany

Four of the last five years have experienced increased wildfire risk, as the figure above shows.

High damage caused by thunderstorms and lightning strikes

Extreme weather is not cheap: Insurer evaluations show that thunderstorms and lightning cause a lot of material damage in Germany.

Number of lightning strikes (earth and cloud-cloud lightning) per year in Germany since 2006 (based on measurements by LINET from Nowcast GmbH)
Number of lightning strikes (earth and cloud-cloud lightning) per year in Germany since 2006 (based on measurements by LINET from Nowcast GmbH)

However, the time series of the data are still too short to derive reliable statements about climate-related trends. There is no clear trend in the number of lightning strikes in the data from the past 15 years; the last few years actually showed fewer lightning strikes in comparison.

Wind and storm: Hardly any changes

Although storms always come to the fore and are worthy of headlines, these extreme weather events don't really increase. On the contrary, various data sources indicate a slight decline in average wind speeds for Germany and the North Sea over the past few decades.

Time series of the average wind speed at a height of 100 meters in Germany in m/s in the period from 1950 to 2021
Time series of the average wind speed at a height of 100 meters in Germany in m/s in the period from 1950 to 2021. (Evaluation by the German Weather Service based on the global reanalyses ERA5 and ERA5-BE of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S))

A Europe-wide analysis of wind measurements also shows weaker wind conditions for the greater area around Germany during the last two decades compared to the two decades before the year 2000. Evaluations of the wind speed at the height of 100 m, which is relevant for wind energy, based on reanalyses also show this a decline over the last decades.

Tornadoes – Strong increase in numbers, but more likely due to more observation

The number of tornadoes increased sharply, which can be largely explained by the increase and current spread of mobile devices with photo and video functions and thus the decrease in the number of unreported cases.

The number of observed and verified tornadoes in Germany between 1986 and 1995 averaged nine per year and rose to an average of around 56 tornado observations per year between 2001 and 2010. There are 42 tornado observations per year from 2012 to 2021.

Tornadoes in the period January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2021 according to the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD, link: www.eswd.eu). All tornadoes with quality level “QC0+” or better are included (i.e. plausible or confirmed cases)
Tornadoes in the period January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2021 according to the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD, link: www.eswd.eu). All tornadoes with quality level “QC0+” or better are included (i.e. plausible or confirmed cases)

The risk of higher storm surges is increasing

Rising sea levels are also a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. In addition to the global melting of glaciers and ice sheets, the cause is the thermal expansion of the warming seas and oceans.

Over the observation period from 1843 to 2019, both the high tide (high tide) and the low tide (low tide) increased on an annual average in Cuxhaven. Due to the increasing tide, the tidal range increased by around 15 cm in 177 years. Over the period since 1993 for which satellite altimetry data are available, these data show an acceleration in global marine game growth.

Change in sea level in Cuxhaven. Source: Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH)
Change in sea level in Cuxhaven. Source: Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH)

Conclusion

In summary, it can be said that extreme weather has increased in Germany. Some points are still unclear and cannot be seen as signs of climate change at this point (such as precipitation and wind), but other extreme weather such as intense heat and drought as well as storm surges send a clear signal.

And if something doesn't change quickly in the next few years, extreme weather will definitely continue to increase.

Source and article image:

German Weather Service / Extreme Weather Congress (2022): What we know about extreme weather in Germany in 2022. Offenbach am Main, Germany ( PDF )
Also interesting: Mimikama is a partner of the ZOOM Children's Museum in Vienna!
In the current exhibition, children and young people take on the role of journalists and produce their own news. – ZOOM Children’s Museum in Vienna: Mimikama is a partner!


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