A scaremongering par excellence was carried out around January 15, 2020, according to which there would be a MEGA blackout in Germany on that day.
Because on January 15th the time had come: Germany should produce less electricity than is consumed; there will be a blackout. The consequences: The power will be out everywhere, there will be anarchy, families and friends will attack each other, cannibalism will be the order of the day, and everything will be quiet on Facebook!
Sounds apocalyptic, right? We bet you already have goosebumps too! There's only one problem:
But that hasn't stopped various YouTubers from producing more panic videos about an impending blackout since December 2019, because as we all know, fear can always get you good clicks. Mega BLACKOUT and CHAOS in GERMANY (2 weeks) also help on January 15, 2020 – WARNING “.
We are also receiving more and more inquiries about such videos and status posts:
“So now I have to ask:
What the heck is up with this “blackout warning for Germany” on January 15th?
at 7 p.m.? People are encouraged to buy supplies, heaters, blankets, lights, etc. for 14-22 days until blah, etc.
Has anyone read anything about this?”
The Federal Office for Civil Protection is said to have even called for emergency measures to be taken, at least according to one video , on the BBK website there is only general advice for a blackout, no warnings about the date).
So if “everyone” writes and talks about it, there must be something to it, right? Let's look at the facts!
If the source is not freely accessible
All warnings of this kind have at least one kernel of truth: January 15, 2020, 7 p.m. Because this point in time is actually statistically significant, which we would like to explain in more detail below.
Many pages and videos are based on an article in “ Welt ”, which appeared on January 23, 2018 and has the headline “ Germany is in danger of running out of electricity on January 15, 2020 ”. Since the article is behind a paywall, many users will not be able to read it, but we can tell you that it also mentions that time, namely 7 p.m.
And precisely because the article is not readable for everyone, and the facts cannot be verified by everyone, various sites and YouTubers can now put together the most beautiful scenarios about a blackout and serve them up to the reader and viewer! Because very few people will check it, and these few people know that the articles and videos are simply creating panic, in contrast to the factual article in “Welt”.
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So where does the date come from?
As mentioned above, the “Welt” article was published on January 23, 2018. This is important to know, because it means you know exactly on what basis that date was given: namely from the “ Report of the German transmission system operators on the current balance 2016-2020 ” as of October 31, 2017.
The date can be found in several places in this document, including in this wording:
“The expected most critical point in time in Germany was selected for the forecast for the years 2018-2020. As expected, this occurs in the evening hours of a weekday in January. Based on the usual presentation at ENTSO-E, the 3rd Wednesday in January at 7:00 p.m. is considered.”
What's special about January 15, 2020?
To do this, let’s take another look at the transmission system operators’ report:

It is noticeable that in the forecast for 2020 the remaining output including reserves is -0.5 gigawatts; taking power plants abroad into account only results in a 0.0 gigawatt compensation. In fact, things could be tight if you go purely based on these numbers.
Conclusion of some pages and videos: There is no more electricity at exactly 7 p.m. on the reference day.
The current report
The most recent current account report at this time is dated January 23, 2019 . Let’s now also look at these numbers and forecasts:

Here we can now see for 2020 (second column from the right) that there is no longer a direct day and time, only “calendar week 3”. The report also addresses the negative forecast from the last report for 2020:
“In the 2017 current account report, a small negative remaining performance was reported for the first time. Under the conditions described above, with the information available to the TSOs at the time and the assumptions made, there would have been an import requirement of 0.5 GW for the reference day of 2020. Due to the constant updating of the data basis and consideration of the current information on the power plant fleet in Germany, the present power balance report for January 2020 results in a positive remaining output of approximately 1 GW."
In short: As is usual with forecasts, the forecast was corrected to current values, back in January 2019.
Now YouTubers and various sites can actually look forward to 2021, because after all there is now a negative value... but they should perhaps it would be better to wait until an even more recent current account report is published.
Forecasts
In principle, you can panic about a blackout every year because the forecasts can only be based on current values. These early forecasts, especially when they are negative, help when planning new electricity infrastructure.
At the time when the current account report was published in 2017 and the “Welt” article appeared in 2018, the situation was actually unclear, and of course there was discussion about how to compensate for the negative and what consequences it could have.
Welt , the Federal Network Agency said the following about the negative value predicted at the time:
“The shortfall determined by the transmission system operators as part of the current account is theoretical in nature and assumes a simultaneity of events, which most likely did not occur on January 15, 2020 at 7 p.m.
Only if the supply of renewable generation were at the assumed extremely low level, the failures of the conventional power plants at the assumed very high level and the annual peak load occurred at the same time, would this value of -0.5 gigawatts occur.”
However, the “offers of renewable generation” are not that rare, the “Welt” counters, especially when the photovoltaic systems no longer work in the evening and the wind systems hardly run due to a high pressure area, things could get really tight.
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Conclusion
The scaremongering around January 15th at 7 p.m. is based on a forecast from 2017 that is now out of date. The conclusions and claims (“no electricity for two weeks”, “official calls”) are completely out of thin air and false!
Article image: Shutterstock / By David Jancik
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