The deficit is due to infrastructure: Even with sufficient availability of natural gas, there are still no LNG terminals and pipelines to land and distribute the gas in Europe. This is the result of the report presented on July 14, 2022 by Fraunhofer IEG, Fraunhofer SCAI and TU Berlin on behalf of the “Energy Systems of the Future” (ESYS) project by acatech - German Academy of Engineering Sciences, the National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina and the Union of the German Academies of Sciences.
“The infrastructure-related supply gap can be closed by 2025 if natural gas consumption across Europe falls by 20 percent and the infrastructure is expanded at the same time,” says Mario Ragwitz, head of Fraunhofer IEG, looking into the future. “But in the short term, massive efforts are necessary to reduce natural gas demand.”
The report “European gas supply security from a technical and economic perspective against the background of interrupted supplies from Russia” by Fraunhofer IEG, Fraunhofer SCAI and TU Berlin uses fluid mechanics model calculations to analyze the extent to which the natural gas demand in Europe can be covered by the existing infrastructure and how infrastructure measures affect the security of supply.
For periods of high load - i.e. around the average consumption during a typical two-week cold period (defined according to the TYNDP-DE scenarios of the European transmission system operators) - today's natural gas infrastructure has a performance gap of around 25 percent in Europe and around 30 percent in Germany (related on consumption in 2021) when Russian natural gas is no longer supplied via the eastern pipelines. The performance gap exists even when the natural gas storage facilities are completely filled and is caused by the infrastructure of the network. It is not possible to distribute enough gas through the existing terminals and pipelines, even if sufficient quantities of natural gas were available for the European market from other sources. In the medium term, there is a lack of efficient pipelines for imports and LNG terminals to be able to absorb larger quantities of natural gas. The infrastructure-related supply gap in relation to the annual volume of natural gas will be somewhat smaller, but of a similar magnitude. This means that, even over the course of the year, not enough natural gas can be landed and distributed in Europe if consumption is not reduced.
Getting the network ready
The construction of LNG terminals can make a significant contribution to ensuring security of supply in Germany and Europe. However, LNG terminals on the North Sea compete with Norwegian pipeline gas for network capacity and contribute to high network utilization. Since the gas network in northeast Germany is significantly less utilized and Russian gas would no longer be fed in if deliveries were stopped, locations on the Baltic Sea are recommended from an infrastructural perspective for the construction of LNG terminals.
Another challenge is that the pipeline network does not run linearly or symmetrically in an east-west direction. Large diameter tubes lie in the east and the network branches out to the west like a vein system. In such a network, flow reversal is not so easy because there are only a limited number of entry points with technically limited capacity. The models show where regionally high network loads occur when the flow reverses, for example between Italy and Austria or Germany and the Netherlands. Here, expanding the infrastructure would help the most to increase security of supply. The conversion of compressor stations along the pipelines should also be given high priority in order to enable gas flow in the opposite direction, i.e. from east to west, across the board (reverse flow). Even if these measures are implemented, significant savings will be essential to supply all European countries.
In the long term, up to 2025, two effects are expected that can close the performance gap: On the one hand, more natural gas can be transported by expanding the natural gas infrastructure. On the other hand, due to the transformation of the energy system, a decrease in natural gas demand due to climate protection is expected. The planned expansion of infrastructure by 2025 could reduce the performance gap during peak periods in Europe to 20 percent. At the same time, the European transmission system operators expect natural gas consumption in Europe to fall by 20 percent by 2025 if ambitious climate protection measures such as a strong expansion of renewables, a widespread use of electrified and efficient application technologies (e.g. electric vehicles and heat pumps) and a strong expansion of the power grids such as be implemented as planned.
methodology
The report simulated the effects of a complete stop of natural gas deliveries from Russia for Germany and Europe. The starting point of the analysis is a transport model for balancing flows between individual countries. The maximum capacities at the interface are specified as additional conditions, as are the upper limits for natural gas production and the LNG and pipeline imports of the individual countries, including the expected production quantities.
The simulation software MYNTS (Multiphysical Network Simulator) developed by Fraunhofer SCAI was used to calculate the gas flows in the flow model based on it. The program, used by numerous network operators, can be used to analyze and optimize the operation and planning of complex networks for gas, electricity and water. MYNTS models and simulates the networks as a system of algebro differential equations. The simulation shows how changes in various factors, such as flow rates, affect the system. This makes it possible to examine the effects of a gas stop not only from a purely accounting perspective, but also regionally by modeling the infrastructure.
About the academy project “Energy Systems of the Future” (ESYS)
In parallel to the report by Fraunhofer IEG, Fraunhofer SCAI and TU Berlin, the report “Scenarios for the development of commodity prices” was also carried out by the Energy Economics Institute at the University of Cologne (EWI) and presented today. Using global gas and European electricity market models, it examines, among other things, several scenarios for the possible price developments of coal, oil, natural gas and electricity for the years 2026 and 2030. The scenarios vary with regard to the assumed demand for electricity and gas, the expansion of renewable energies and the medium-term availability of energy imports from Russia.
Both reports were prepared on behalf of the academy project “Energy Systems of the Future” (ESYS) and serve as the basis for an ESYS impulse that discusses the effects of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine on energy prices and security of supply. The impulse is available at: Energy systems of the future
With the “Energy Systems of the Future” (ESYS) initiative, acatech – German Academy of Engineering Sciences, the National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina and the Union of German Academies of Sciences are providing impetus for the debate about the challenges and opportunities of the energy transition in Germany. In the academy project, more than 160 experts from science and research develop options for action to implement a safe, affordable and sustainable energy supply. ESYS was started in April 2013 and is funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) until December 2023. acatech is in charge of the project.
Source: Frauenhofer IEG
report (PDF)
Press release from Frauenhofer SCAI
Website of the ESYS project at acatech
This might also be of interest: Alternatives to gas heating
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