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Fact check: While rummaging around for photos, I discovered that there were warm summers even before 1995...

A newspaper article from 1995 is being spread on social networks with a misleading interpretation.

Author: Tom Wannenmacher

The claim

An older newspaper article from 1995 documenting warm summers from the past is being misleadingly interpreted on social networks to put current temperature trends and global warming into perspective.

Our conclusion

Although there have been warm summers in the past, more recent data shows a clear warming trend. Using old weather data to relativize current warming is misleading.

The author of the article “After the summer of the century in 1911 there were repeated periods of heat” is Adolf Hirth . The publishing newspaper cannot be identified. When compared with the temperature records, the article is factually correct.

Information about Adolf Hirth: Hirth, an important name in literature. Known for his numerous newspaper articles and books on local history, Hirth has left an impressive legacy. A teacher and expert in legends and history, he died in 2016 at the age of 88. His reputation as a local historian and legend expert reached far beyond Baden, which was confirmed by inquiries from England and the USA, even in old age. For his contributions, he was awarded the Citizen's Badge by his home community and honored with the Medal of Merit by the Federal Republic of Germany .

This newspaper article says: After the summer of the century in 1911, there were repeated periods of heat


After the summer of the century in 1911, there were repeated periods of heat. In 1947, temperatures exceeded 36 degrees until October. Bühl. This year, July not only fully lived up to its reputation as the "high summer month", but at the same time it also dashed with all its might the fears that the rainy, cool spring could also be followed by a "bad" summer. The mercury rose to oppressive heights and made people groan under the intense heat. The year 1911 went down in history as the first extremely hot summer. At that time, the heat record in Germany, 39.9 degrees according to official standards, was measured in Jena; but the domestic records weren't too much lower either. The winemakers were happy about this summer; the year 1911 brought them a wine of the century. From the beginning of July, according to a local wine chronicle, it didn't rain again until autumn was at home." After the year 1915 was highlighted in the weather chronicles as a dry, hot summer, 1921 again brought record temperatures.

To quote the official quotations, for example, the temperatures rose to 39.4 degrees in Karlsruhe on July 28th. The hot summer was followed by a very warm autumn, so that the reporter based in our area summed up: “There was nice weather until late in the year.” 1921 became infamous for its numerous damaging thunderstorms. In 1929, the saying that a very cold winter is followed by a hot summer came true, which is not always the case. As is well known, it was the coldest winter in a long time, with severe frost at the beginning of the year and also in the months of February and March with temperatures down to minus 28 degrees. This was then followed by a hot summer with high temperatures. After an outstanding year with its late summer weather in 1942 and the following year and 1944, temperatures reached a high level again in 1945.

The year 1947 stands out from the list of hot summers. After a harsh winter, a hot and dry summer set in, which is particularly remarkable not only in terms of the number of degrees but also in its length. The temperatures remained at and above 36 degrees for a long time, which extended into September and partly into October, a very “dry year,” according to popular records. Many towns and villages experienced the summer with the highest temperatures ever recorded, also with a drastic lack of water. The water level in the Rhine has not been this low for a long time. A weather record classifies it as: Hottest and driest summer in living memory.” While 1949 and 1950 had considerably high values, the year 1952 again had extreme temperatures that reached up to 39 degrees. In many places there was drought and water shortages. Over 200 people died directly or indirectly due to heat in the hot summer of 1952." The years 1957, 1959, 1961, 1963 and 1964 also had hot or even extremely hot summers, with the record year "1964" standing out as one has a large number of summer and hot days, but compared to the “summer of the century” in 1947, it is ultimately not a record summer. The 1970s also had some particularly hot summers: for example, “de sell trucke Johrgong” in 1971 or “abundance of sunshine and severe drought” in 1976. Adolf Hirth


After the summer of 1911, there were repeated periods of heat

A look at the statistics of summer temperatures from 1881 to 2022 shows that the summers mentioned in the article were actually quite warm. 1911, 1921, 1947 and the others mentioned stand out clearly from the temperatures of the surrounding summers.

Statistics of summer temperatures

In some cases they almost reached the summer temperatures of recent years. But only almost. At the time of this article, only the vintages 1947, 1983, 1992 and 1994 made it into the 10 warmest summers of the last 141 years in Germany.

Not suitable for putting current temperature developments and global warming into perspective

However, the accumulation in recent years, which cannot be overlooked, shows why it is misleading cherry-picking to use this old article to put current developments into perspective.

From the perspective of 1995, the author was right. However, if one takes into account the accumulation of particularly warm summers in Germany and globally in recent decades, it is clear that the most important part of the story is simply missing.

Basically, the following rule of thumb applies: the shorter the observed period, the more the weather events leave their mark. Fluctuations and deviations from the statistical mean are correspondingly greater.

While “only” six of the warmest 10 summers in Germany have taken place in the past 20 years (and occupy the top 5), on the whole year nine years after 2002 occupy the top ten, with only 1994 taking ninth place.

It is therefore important to distinguish between weather and climate .

It is therefore important to distinguish between weather and climate.
It is therefore important to distinguish between weather and climate.

To illustrate this, I have compared some temperature statistics in a collage for comparison:

From regional (1 federal state) and monthly resolution across Germany and the annual average to the annual average of global temperatures. If you compare the deviations between individual years depending on the resolution, regional weather patterns are less noticeable from graphic to graphic. In return, this makes it clear why one cannot draw any conclusions about global average temperatures or even global warming from the fresh average temperatures in Hesse in July 2010.

Statistics of summer temperatures

Conversely, it is sometimes argued that climate change cannot be inferred from an above-average summer or winter. Due to the natural fluctuations of the climate and weather system, this is fundamentally true, but it overlooks the connection between weather and climate: as the climate warms, warmer weather inevitably becomes more common. Not always, but more often. A look at the various representations of the temperature statistics confirms this very clearly.

Conclusion: Although there have been warm summers in the past, the increasing frequency of particularly warm summers recently shows a clear trend towards warming. It is important to distinguish between individual weather events and long-term climate trends. The statistical data confirms that as the climate warms, warmer weather becomes more likely. Attempting to use older weather data to relativize current global warming is misleading and misses a significant part of the overall story.

Author: Michael Kipp

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Notes:

1) This content reflects the current state of affairs at the time of publication
.
The reproduction of individual images, screenshots, embeds or video sequences serves to discuss the topic. 2) Individual articles (not fact checks) were created using machine help and
were carefully checked by the Mimikama editorial team before publication. ( Reason )


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