
Fact check: While rummaging around for photos, I discovered that there were warm summers even before 1995...
A newspaper article from 1995 is being spread on social networks with a misleading interpretation.
The claim
An older newspaper article from 1995 documenting warm summers from the past is being misleadingly interpreted on social networks to put current temperature trends and global warming into perspective.
Our conclusion
Although there have been warm summers in the past, more recent data shows a clear warming trend. Using old weather data to relativize current warming is misleading.
The author of the article “After the summer of the century in 1911 there were repeated periods of heat” is Adolf Hirth . The publishing newspaper cannot be identified. When compared with the temperature records, the article is factually correct.
Information about Adolf Hirth: Hirth, an important name in literature. Known for his numerous newspaper articles and books on local history, Hirth has left an impressive legacy. A teacher and expert in legends and history, he died in 2016 at the age of 88. His reputation as a local historian and legend expert reached far beyond Baden, which was confirmed by inquiries from England and the USA, even in old age. For his contributions, he was awarded the Citizen's Badge by his home community and honored with the Medal of Merit by the Federal Republic of Germany .
This newspaper article says: After the summer of the century in 1911, there were repeated periods of heat

A look at the statistics of summer temperatures from 1881 to 2022 shows that the summers mentioned in the article were actually quite warm. 1911, 1921, 1947 and the others mentioned stand out clearly from the temperatures of the surrounding summers.

In some cases they almost reached the summer temperatures of recent years. But only almost. At the time of this article, only the vintages 1947, 1983, 1992 and 1994 made it into the 10 warmest summers of the last 141 years in Germany.
Not suitable for putting current temperature developments and global warming into perspective
However, the accumulation in recent years, which cannot be overlooked, shows why it is misleading cherry-picking to use this old article to put current developments into perspective.
From the perspective of 1995, the author was right. However, if one takes into account the accumulation of particularly warm summers in Germany and globally in recent decades, it is clear that the most important part of the story is simply missing.
Basically, the following rule of thumb applies: the shorter the observed period, the more the weather events leave their mark. Fluctuations and deviations from the statistical mean are correspondingly greater.
While “only” six of the warmest 10 summers in Germany have taken place in the past 20 years (and occupy the top 5), on the whole year nine years after 2002 occupy the top ten, with only 1994 taking ninth place.
It is therefore important to distinguish between weather and climate .


To illustrate this, I have compared some temperature statistics in a collage for comparison:
From regional (1 federal state) and monthly resolution across Germany and the annual average to the annual average of global temperatures. If you compare the deviations between individual years depending on the resolution, regional weather patterns are less noticeable from graphic to graphic. In return, this makes it clear why one cannot draw any conclusions about global average temperatures or even global warming from the fresh average temperatures in Hesse in July 2010.

Conversely, it is sometimes argued that climate change cannot be inferred from an above-average summer or winter. Due to the natural fluctuations of the climate and weather system, this is fundamentally true, but it overlooks the connection between weather and climate: as the climate warms, warmer weather inevitably becomes more common. Not always, but more often. A look at the various representations of the temperature statistics confirms this very clearly.
Conclusion: Although there have been warm summers in the past, the increasing frequency of particularly warm summers recently shows a clear trend towards warming. It is important to distinguish between individual weather events and long-term climate trends. The statistical data confirms that as the climate warms, warmer weather becomes more likely. Attempting to use older weather data to relativize current global warming is misleading and misses a significant part of the overall story.
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Author: Michael Kipp
Notes:
1) This content reflects the current state of affairs at the time of publication
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The reproduction of individual images, screenshots, embeds or video sequences serves to discuss the topic. 2) Individual articles (not fact checks) were created using machine help and
were carefully checked by the Mimikama editorial team before publication. ( Reason )
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