Putin's 2024 "election victory" under the microscope

Putin's victory opens the possibility that geopolitical relations and the international security architecture will undergo profound changes as Russia's influence and global insecurity increase.

Geopolitical tensions and the influence of Russia

The re-election of Vladimir Putin as President of Russia reinforces a geopolitical scenario that has already had a profound impact on the world. Relations between Russia and the West, particularly with the United States and the European Union, have been tense for years. The reasons for this are diverse and range from the annexation of Crimea to the military intervention in Ukraine to allegations of interference in the democratic processes of other states. Putin's renewed election victory could be seen as a confirmation of his previous foreign policy line, which is aimed at strengthening Russia's position on the global chessboard.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has once again made serious threats against the West. Putin warned that a direct conflict between Russia and NATO could trigger a third world war. He therefore warns about NATO ground troops in Ukraine and the risk of escalation. According to the Russian president, “ everything is possible in the modern world.”

Geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West could worsen in several ways. First, through an increased Russian military presence in strategically important regions, which increases fears of direct confrontation. Second, Russia could seek to further expand its influence in international organizations and bodies to support its geopolitical goals and act as a counterweight to Western influence. This includes not only a veto position in the United Nations, but also an active role in regional forums and organizations.

International relations are therefore facing new challenges

The question of how Western states react to Russia's rise in strength is becoming a central issue in international diplomacy. Further deepening divisions could threaten global security and stability and make it more difficult to find common solutions to global problems.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has described Russian President Vladimir as a power-hungry “dictator.” “It is clear to everyone in the world that this person – as has often happened in history – is simply drunk with power and will do anything to be able to rule forever,” Zelensky said in online services.

security and military

Putin's announcement that he will further strengthen the Russian armed forces and pay particular attention to military operations in Ukraine indicates a possible intensification of military conflicts. This development could encourage an arms race and lead to an increased Russian military presence in certain regions. Of particular concern is the possibility that this military buildup will not be limited to conventional forces, but will also include an expansion of cyberwar and hybrid warfare activities.

With his “re-election” as president, Vladimir Putin has secured power in Russia for another six years. Experts expect that the autocrat will now further tighten his course.

A continuation or even increase of Russian activities in these areas poses a significant threat to global security. Cyberattacks can cripple critical infrastructure in other countries, while disinformation campaigns can influence political processes and public opinion. These tactics not only undermine trust in institutions and media, but can also hamper international cooperation and mutual understanding.

Overall, the global community is faced with the task of responding to these developments and finding ways to ensure international security and stability. The importance of diplomacy, international cooperation and building trust between states cannot be overestimated.

According to Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens), the presidential election in Russia with the victory of incumbent Vladimir Putin was an “ election without an election”. Before a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels, Baerbock said: "The electoral process shows not only Putin's nefarious actions against his own people, but also against the United Nations Charter."

Economic relations

Russia's role as one of the world's largest energy exporters makes the country an important player in global markets, particularly in the area of oil and gas supplies. This position gives Russia considerable influence over energy prices and thus over the economic stability of many countries. In the past, geopolitical decisions and conflicts involving Russia have led to significant fluctuations in energy prices. Against this backdrop, Putin's re-election could put further pressure on global energy markets, primarily given increasing tensions between Russia and the West.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denied Putin “any legitimacy.” “This election fraud has no legitimacy and cannot have any,” said Zelensky in his evening video address distributed in Kiev. “This figure (Putin) must end up in the dock in The Hague – we must ensure that, everyone in the world who values life and decency.” There is an arrest warrant from the World Criminal Court in Den because of the accusation of war crimes in Ukraine Hague versus Putin.”

On the one hand, a continuation or tightening of the sanctions policy of Western states against Russia could further strain trade relations. Sanctions in response to political and military actions have already led to trade and economic restrictions. On the other hand, Russia's search for new markets and trading partners, mainly in Asia and the Middle East, could be a strategy to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions. This would not only change global trade dynamics, but could also lead to a reorganization of economic alliances and spheres of influence.

Putin's comments on Navalny

Vladimir Putin's first mention of Alexei Navalny by name after his death sheds a harsh light on the dark aspects of his leadership. In a speech that served as both thanks and justification, Putin spoke of Navalny's death as a "sad incident" and touched on the sensitive issues of death and a possible prisoner exchange. These comments, particularly the remark that Navalny should not have returned, demonstrate a shocking indifference to the life of a political opponent.

Yulia Navalnaya called Putin a “ murderer and bandit” in Berlin. The widow of the late opposition politician Alexei Navalny called on her compatriots on the last day of the presidential election to vote for Putin's opponent or to invalidate ballot papers with the inscription "Nawalny".

Leonid Volkov, a close confidante of Navalny, sharply criticized Putin's comments and accused him of having brought about Navalny's death in order to avoid a prisoner exchange. Putin's cynical comments and Volkov's strong reaction reveal a deep divide within Russian society and raise questions about the legitimacy of the political leadership.

The sham election and its consequences

The presidential elections in Russia, in which Putin received around 88 percent of the vote, are symbolic of a political landscape in which the opposition has little room to breathe. The vote, criticized as a sham, confirms Putin's rule for another term that would keep him in power until 2030 - longer than any Russian ruler since Catherine the Great. The election not only underlines the authoritarian nature of the regime, but also the systematic suppression of any political opposition. The fact that well-known critics are either dead, imprisoned or forced into exile speaks volumes about the challenges to democracy and human rights in Russia.

Putin's vision for Russia

In his speech, Putin thanked Russian citizens for their participation in the elections and emphasized the “unity” of the Russian people. He took the opportunity to praise his soldiers in Ukraine, suggesting a continuation of the military agenda in the region. These comments provide a glimpse into Putin's vision for Russia: a continuation of authoritarian rule backed by nationalist rhetoric and military might. However, this strategy risks further isolating Russia on the international stage and deepening domestic political divisions.

Questions and answers about Putin's election victory under the microscope

Question: How could Putin's election victory affect relations between Russia and the West?

Answer: Putin's election victory confirms the continuation of his previous foreign policy, which has already led to tensions between Russia and the West. Historical precedent shows that Russia has taken a confrontational stance under Putin's leadership, such as in the 2014 Ukraine crisis and the annexation of Crimea, which led to a series of sanctions by Western countries. These sanctions, in turn, have affected economic relations and diplomatic interactions between Russia and the West. Expert opinions suggest that a continuation of this policy could further exacerbate geopolitical rivalry and complicate the search for common solutions in international forums.

Question: What significance does Putin's mention of Navalny have for Russia's political future?

Answer: Putin's mention of Navalny could be a sign of the increasing willingness to engage in political repression. This approach is in line with a long-standing practice of restricting freedom of expression and persecuting political opponents in Russia. Reactions to Navalny's death and Putin's related statements, both within Russia and internationally, point to growing concerns about the human rights situation and democratic freedoms in the country. These developments could further strain Russia's international relations, particularly with countries that emphasize respect for human rights and democratic principles.

Question: What impact does Russia's military strategy under Putin have on the global security situation?

Answer: Russia's military strategy under Putin, including its emphasis on hybrid warfare and cyber operations, has already led to increased global insecurity. Examples of this include cyber attacks on the infrastructure of Western states and military interventions in Syria and Ukraine. These measures have increased security concerns in neighboring countries and among NATO members, leading to increased defense budgets and increased military exercises in Europe. In the long term, such strategies could not only increase tensions between NATO members and Russia, but also lead to an arms race and the destabilization of international security structures.

Question: What does the recent election say about the future of democracy in Russia?

Answer: The way Russia's recent election was conducted, including reports of irregularities and the elimination of political competition, reflects democratic regression. This is in line with a trend in recent years in which media freedoms have been restricted and opposition figures have been persecuted. These developments suggest that the political landscape in Russia is increasingly characterized by authoritarian tendencies, dampening the prospects for democratic renewal in the near future. Experts fear that this trend could not only further limit political diversity and human rights in Russia, but also harm the international perception of Russia as a responsible actor on the world stage.

Question: To what extent does Russia's energy policy affect the global economy?

Answer: Russia's role as one of the world's largest energy exporters gives the country significant influence over the global economy. Fluctuations in Russian energy policy, such as gas supply cuts or price changes, can have a significant impact on global energy markets. This became clear, for example, during the gas disputes with Ukraine, which led to interruptions in deliveries to European countries. Such events can not only influence energy prices worldwide, but also endanger the economic stability of highly dependent regions. Diversifying energy sources and finding alternative energy partners are therefore important strategies for countries to minimize the risks associated with Russia's energy policy.

Conclusion:

The world is at a turning point where Putin's re-election not only inflames geopolitical tensions and military dynamics, but also challenges the international order and the principles of democracy and human rights. His re-election could be seen as a continuation and possible intensification of policies that threaten global security, undermine economic stability and promote political repression at home.

The response of the international community, and in particular democratic states, will be crucial in order to remain faithful to the principles of freedom, justice and international cooperation. There is a need for a clear and unified stance on the challenges posed by Putin's Russia and the promotion of dialogue aimed at protecting fundamental rights and promoting peace.

In this time of uncertainty and change, it is the responsibility of every state and international organization to build bridges, resolve conflicts through diplomacy and work towards a world order based on mutual respect and cooperation. This is the only way we can create a future of peace, stability and prosperity for everyone.

As we closely monitor developments in Russia and their impact on the international stage, it is to be hoped that the global community will find the wisdom, strength and courage to work together for a fairer and safer world.

Sources:

Putin’s “election victory” under the microscope